ЭЛЕКТРОННЫЙ НАУЧНЫЙ ЖУРНАЛ "МОЛОДАЯ НАУКА СИБИРИ"

TECHNOLOGY FOR CREATING MULTIFACTOR AND FACTOR FORECAST MODELS OF INDICATORS OF THE TRANSPORTATION PROCESS BY RAIL

Авторы: 
Y. M. Krakovsky
N. N. Popova
Дата поступления: 
15.06.2020
Библиографическое описание статьи: 

Krakovsky Y.M., Popova N.N. Technology for creating  multifactor and factor forecast models of indicators of the transportation process by rail. The electronic scientific journal "Young science of Siberia", 2020, no. 4(10). [Accessed 31/12/20] (in Russian)

Рубрика: 
5. COMPUTER SCIENCE
Год: 
2020
Номер журнала (Том): 
4(10) 2020
УДК: 
УДК 519.237.5
Файл статьи: 
Иконка PDF technology_for_creating_multifactor.pdf
Аннотация: 

The technology for creating multifactor and factor models of indicators of the transportation process by rail for generalized forecasting of cargo loading based on statistical and expert information, taking into account the scenario approach, is proposed. Generalized forecasting is based on three values of cargo loading with different weights: a) the value obtained by three-factor first-order model; b) the value obtained by factor model; c) point expert judgment. Weights are recommended to be obtained by the analytic hierarchy process using expert judgments. Twelve factor models for cargo loading, for wagon turnaround, for service speed, for locomotive productivity according to the data of transportation process on the Far Eastern Railway. Good practical adequacy of the obtained models is shown.

Ключевые слова: 
cargo loading
regression analysis
scenario approach
expert assessments and judgments
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